house property income 2015-16

one of the hardest things to do as a propertyinvestor is to know how to analyse a property market. we can look at so many different suburbs.we can look at different cities. but it's really difficult to know - is that area actuallygoing to grow in value or is it going to stay stagnant or decline? so, today, i did an interview with jeremysheppard from dsrdata.com.au. he is my go-to person when it comes to understanding howdata impacts our view on a suburb and impacts whether we think a suburb is likely to growor not. there's a lot of people out there touting wisdom about population growth andincome statistics and all of this sort of stuff, but often, the advise they give isactually wrong. and jeremy has his counterintuitive

approach where he really looks at the data,really understands what the data means and how it's going to affect a suburb. and hedisplays all the data for free over at dsrdata.com.au. so today, i got on the line with him and wediscussed a whole bunch of things about how to analyse a property market. we looked ata lot of different things. originally, i was going to break this up, but it was such agood interview, i decided to leave it all together. here's a short list of some of thethings that we're going to discuss. we look at the dsr data story, so why didhe start dsr data? what's so great about demand and supply and why is that important? we lookat is capital growth sustainable? one of the things people say is if an area has grownin the past, it's going to grow in the future.

that may not actually be true. we look athow to analyse a property market using his tool and using other data. we look at whetheror not population growth causes capital growth and the answer is, no, it actually doesn't,but we talk about that. we look at whether or not the property clock is a bogus idea.i really like this part of the interview where we talk about whether or not we think theproperty clock actually has merit, or is there a better way to look at things? we also talkabout how to estimate the peak of a market, so we're not buying at the peak and then pricesdrop. we also talk about why we may not actually need to buy properties under market value. we discuss a whole bunch of other differentthings as well, but i'll leave it with you

for now. here's the interview with jeremysheppard from dsrdata.com.au. ryan: okay. well, let's start. so how didyou get into property analysis, data analysis or suburbs? what caused you to start yoursite dsr data? jeremy: first of all, getting into the data.i found myself spending a lot of time researching and i also wanted to keep things objective.i knew that a numerical basis for property investing is a good idea for objectivity becausethe numbers don't have emotions and it helps me keep my emotions out and prevents me frommaking subjective decisions. but the other issue was that i wanted to buy in the bestplaces in australia and there's nearly 16,000 suburbs. so, how do you go about filteringthat down? having an automated tool just zips

through all of them, looking for at leastsome positivity in certain statistics. that, to me, it just struck a cord and i found myselfgathering the same sort of data all the time for individual suburbs, so why can't i justdo it for all of them? so that's where, i suppose. ryan: how do you decide on the criteria tosay, "well, i'm going to look at x, y, z." and the different points that you eventuallydecided on? did you do this all by yourself? like, is this a project at home sort of thing? jeremy: yes. yeah, yeah. it started off asjust a home project. yeah. i want to make good investments, how do i go about it? initially,it was really just what was available. if

there was data that i could readily get myhands on and it had some kind of impact on supply or demand, then yeah, i grabbed itand used. there's still data out there that i can't get that i really, desperately want. ryan: like what? jeremy: i really cool one would be the countof people turning up to an open inspection. i think that would be a great indicator, butyou've got to there manually. that sort of stuff just isn't published online. so morework to do, i guess. ryan: so you just kind of went as a home project,"okay, i'm going to do this for my own investing." back to my previous question, what made youchoose - there's a lot of data out there,

right? you can get access to all these differentpoints of data. how do you know that one data point will affect supply and demand and onewon't? jeremy: i guess it's a case of just seeinghow market reacts over a few years and then looking at what was it that was really - thatstood out to me about that market. in the past, i've noticed if i'm in a bit of a bitchfight with other buyers, i know that having a large number of people, large number ofbuyers is a good indicator of demand and supply. i also noticed that high-yielding marketswas a pre-cursor to capital growth because the tenants move in first, they're more agilethan buyers because it's easier to sign a lease than to sign a contract to purchasea property. if a location was attractive,

you'd find the rent scale up first and thatwas an indicator to me. so one of the things that i looked at washigh yield and days on market - how quickly are things getting snuffed up. i guess it'sa case of you get a feel for what's going on in a market when you're there at the [inaudible5:55] phase and then try to translate that to indicators of some sort, like vendor discounting.if the vendor is desperate, that can drop the price down a long way and i know that'sa sluggish sort of market. so, yeah, it was just a simple case of thinking carefully abouteach statistic and how it influences capital growth. that sounds really subjective, ironically. ryan: it does.

jeremy: but there's got to be a point whereyou say, "okay, i value this statistic more than the other statistics because i've personallyseen it has more of an impact on capital growth. ryan: with all of the things that we're lookingat, are we talking - everything is like correlation, right? instead of causation, do you think?the stats that we're looking at are a correlation to demand and supply. like the stats we'relooking at don't cause demand or supply. is that right? jeremy: yeah, exactly. yeah, yeah. spot on. ryan: so, we're kind of looking at trailingstatistics more so than leading statistics. is that right?

jeremy: you're right and then wrong becausewhat we want, ideally, as property investors, is a crystal ball - some sort of lead indicator.but we are looking at historical data. we're looking at stuff that's right now. vacancyrates are really easy to figure out right now because you can jump on onthehouse.comor domain or realestate.com.au and you can see what is exactly available. and so youget an up-to-the-minute or up-to-the-hour depending on how tidy the property managersare at advertising your property for rent. you can get an idea right now. things like census data, the number of rentersversus owner occupiers in a location. that, right now, being 2015. the last census wason august 2011. so, it's a tad out of date.

things like sale values, they can be likea good 3 months out of date. so you are looking at historical data, but you're also able toforesee the future because if you can accurately measure the imbalance between supply and demandand you found a location where demand does exceed supply, there has to be a balancingact. property market is a bit like homeostaticorganisms, you know. ryan: i don't know what that means. jeremy: just try to maintain balance. yourskin sweats when it's hot. it gets goosebumps when it's cold to try and thicken itself andprotect you against the cold. there's this continual tug of war between supply and demand.you have a market where demand exceeds supply,

prices go up. and all of a sudden, that subduesdemand because people don't want to pay that much again and so there's that in-built feedbackloop. so the vast majority markets are always - or almost always - in supply and demandbalance. as investors, obviously, we want to find those markets where demand exceedssupply by a significant degree. so, if you can find a market that's out ofbalance, you know what's going to happen in the future. it's going to come back towardsbalance. and so, it is a lead indicator of sorts. ryan: yeah. so, you're saying if there's moredemand than supply, then effectively, prices have to rise because it's always trying tocreate that balance between supply and demand.

so, if the demand is really high, then priceswill likely rise in order to meet that demand and then things will level out as prices goup because more people will drop out of that market because it becomes too expensive. jeremy: yes, exactly. yeah. ryan: so, ideally, when people are researchingan area, they're looking for more demand than supply because the equilibrium forces therewill kind of force that area up. what are we talking about in terms of - likewith dsr data - what are we talking about in terms of time frame? because, obviously,you could have areas where demands exceeds supply, but might have a year growth leftin them versus areas that might grow consistently

for the next 5 or 10 years. can we do anythingto look into that or is that kind of out of our reach? jeremy: i've done a fair bit of analysis myselfon that sort of thing and it really varies depending on the market. i can't say thata high demand-supply ratio means that prices will increase over the next 6 months or 6years. there have been some markets when i first started recording the data that arestill out of balance and are slowly creeping back. you mentioned that prices can rise and thatcan balance out the demand - it lowers demand. but the other side of the equation is supplycan rise and that comes from more stock. it

takes a long time for developers to find alocation, especially if land is unavailable or you've got a restrictive council. so therecan be market that are - for very long periods of time - restricted in terms of supply andit always got this sort of tension. the less sales you have in a market - so if peopleare just hanging on to their properties for a long time - the slower prices go up becausebuyers are first of all, there's not enough turnover of stock. secondly, buyers are uncomfortableon what price to offer because they haven't seen comparable sales. you know, this wasa one-off sale, there hasn't been another sale for 3 months. and so, you can get marketsthat are very sluggish and then, you can get markets where it's all flush in the pan. so,the demand exceeded supply, prices rose up.

quickly, developers threw in some extra stockand all of a sudden, it's balanced in 2 years. so, trying to find the correlation of whenthings start happening is quite difficult, but if you've got an extreme case where thedsr is very high, you're going to start seeing growth in values. you should have startedseeing growth in values already. ryan: yeah. so let's talk about the researchmethodology that you recommend to people. because, obviously, like dsr, the demand tosupply ratio is a big part of that but it sounds like it's not everything because youalso need to monitor what supply is going to come to the market and all of this sortof stuff. because most people who follow me, most people invest in property don't do anyof this. they don't do any research necessarily

into an area. they might just buy or reada magazine and invest in an area that's a hot spot or something. what should peopledo? jeremy: i didn't say a thing with my firstproperty. i didn't do anywhere near as much research as i do now. i think i just got luckywith the first one. my approach is, first of all, to use the data simply because it'squick. let's say i've got a budget that's $500,000. i'm looking for something that'sreasonably attractive in terms of yield, but not necessarily positively-geared. let's sayi'm looking for a house rather than a unit. i'm not going to renovate it, so i don't needto live nearby. so it can be anywhere in australia. so i've got nearly 16,000 suburbs to filterthrough. so, i use the statistics to weed

out 99.9% of those. and that's not a cliche,it really is like i'll get to a couple of dozen out of 16,000 suburbs. ryan: so how would someone go about that processof weeding down suburbs to find a few that they may be interested in? jeremy: okay. well, i've got this tool onmy website, the "market matcher". so you plug in your criteria, like your budget and variousthings like yield and vacancy rates that you'll accept. and then you hit the go button andit comes back with a list of markets which have those sort of statistics. from then,i look at that list and probably the next thing i'll do is go to the council websiteand check out -

ryan: so i'm pulling out the market matchernow. so is this a free tool with dsr data or is this for the paid members? jeremy: it is free. however, you're limitedin those statistics. all the tools that are available on dsr data are available for free.however, what you can see in terms of statistics is limited. so the basic dsr is availablefor free. things like vacancy rates, auction clearance rates, days on market, discounting.there are 8 statistics that are free. and then there's 17 statistics available to the"millionaire members", as we call them. i call the free members "cheapskates". we'vegot 2 accounts. there's only been one member who's taken offense to that term, but there'sbeen a lot of people who suggest that i should

change the name. so, i was thinking of using"freelaoder" instead. maybe that'll be better. ryan: it's still pretty offensive. jeremy: yeah. i'm hoping people will see thelight-hearted side of it. ryan: yeah. so basically, like this marketmatcher. i'm going through it now. so, you set your location, your property type, housesor units. and then, what are we trying to look for? we're looking for - so we can setvalues here. we can set rental yields and we can set demand to supply ratio. so, whatdo we want? do we want a high demand to supply ratio? is that what we're looking for? jeremy: yeah. that's a nice, all-encompassingstatistic. you're looking for a high demand-supply

ratio. there's actually a suite of other statisticsthat i use, the strategy suitability index. let's say you're a risk-adverse investor,very worried. you've made a mistake in the past, you don't want to repeat that. so youmight be looking at certain statistics a little more closely than others. there are statistics that i call "sentimentalstatistics". typical examples of those will be days on market and discounting. if you'vegot some heard mentality where people are fearing missing out. like in sydney for thelast 12 months. you'll see the properties get stnapped up really quickly. people areoffering more than the asking price. so, discounting is very low, possibly even negative. dayson market is less than 2 weeks.

ryan: yeah. i was researching cranulla, whichis in southeast sydney for my research course where i teach people how to do some researchand vendor discount was -0.2%. i think days on market was like 33 days or something likethat. so it was very low. jeremy: yeah. that's pretty low. that's noteven considering the off-market deals that take place. it's a pretty hard market. butthose sort of statistics can evaporate really quickly. they can get very negative very quicklyif, say, you have some announcement in the news about interest rates rising. that sortof heard mentality can evaporate really quickly. whereas statistics like vacancy rate and yield,they are a little more consistent. vacancy rate, for example, might be dependent on alease which is 12 months. so, it takes time

for that to filter out of the market. fora low-risk investor, you could favor those statistics more highly than the sentimentvalues. ryan: okay. is this kind of the equivalentof - you know how when people invest in stocks, they can either try and play the market asto whether the market's hot or cold, or they can actually research the company. like, say,someone wants to invest in apple or whatever, go through all their data and to understand,is this a valuable company in and of itself or, you know, there's people who play eitherside of the market. do you know what i'm talking about? jeremy: i think you're referring to technicalanalysis versus fundamental analysis?

ryan: yes. so, like some people just playthe market trends and other people actually look at the fundamentals of a company. isthat similar when we're looking at property? like there's some aspects of data that's thesentiment in the market and there's other aspects that are like fundamentals. jeremy: yeah. and i definitely put the value-based- so warren buffett's technique is try to place a value on a stock. so some statistics,i would say, like vacancy rate and yield, they're value-based. whereas, sentiment basedones are that heard mentality, the impact that it has. they would be things like dayson market and discount. i don't think you can rule out the usefulness of either of thestats. it's just a case of, are you playing

it safe or do you want to maximize your immediatecapital growth potential? ryan: yeah. well, i guess it just dependson your strategy as to which ones. like you should still probably look at all of them,but depending on your strategy, you can look at some more heavily than others. is thatwhat we're trying to get at? jeremy: yes, exactly. ryan: yeah. so if you're more conservative,you'd look at things like vacancy rate and yield, which change slower. if you're afterthe quick capital growth, you might focus on things like days on market and discountingto get potentially quick capital growth over a year to 2 years or something.

jeremy: yeah. that's right. and the dsr issort of your middle of the range. or at least where i figured that it would be. so i'vetried to weight the statistics relative to each other to provide a nice balance. so you'renot missing out on too much capital growth but you're not taking too much risk by justfollowing the dsr. ryan: so it's kind of the middle ground. jeremy: yeah. ryan: what qualifies you to collect all thisdata and then create this algorithm or whatever to analyse this? are you some genius in thebackground? jeremy: no. actually, my background is electricalengineering and computer programming. i can't

remember excelling at statistics at uni. idon't think you really need to be that clever. you just need to be mathematically-minded.of course, the computer programming background helps as well. so, i don't have a data sciencedegree or i'm not a economatrician or whatever, a panel modeler. i don't know what they evencall them. ryan: i don't know either. jeremy: i've had a lot of them jump onlineand become customers and contact me and ask questions. i haven't had any negative feedback,but some have asked for the entire database so they can do their own analysis and i haven'theard anyone come back and say, "look, you've made a mistake here". so, i must be doingsomething right. but at the end of the day,

the proof's in the pudding - does it work?there's a page dedicated on my website. i try to be as transparent as possible without- divulging my intellectual property - that shows how effective the dsr has been in thepast. ryan: i think i've seen that. is that whereyou compare the top dsr suburbs to the top hot spot recommended suburbs that the magazinesput out? jeremy: yeah. australian property investormagazine, almost every year, they put out their flagship issue, they call it the "hot100". so they just consult with a panel of experts, "what do you think is a good locationto invest in for the next 12 months?" and so, i've just recorded those over the years,calculated their averages, plotted them on

a chart and compared it to the national averageover the same time frame. fortunately, for all the release of that magazine, they haveoutperformed the national average, which is good. but the dsr has outperformed the averageindustry experts. and that's just the basic dsr, so dsr plus considers twice the numberof statistics and there's no reason why you have to take the top 100. the top 10 outperformthe top 100 and that's just a shortlist. from there, you do some more fundamental researchand you can improve on that performance. and that's just to pick a market. then you canpick a good property within that market. ryan: yeah. and that's a whole different ballgame altogether - is picking the property within the market.

jeremy: yeah. unfortunately, dsr doesn't helpthere. it's really just the market level. and that's how i use it - just a shortlistingtool to get me started in doing the back-breaking, keyboard-laborious sort of research at a propertylevel. ryan: yeah. i only discovered dsr throughsome of your articles. it would have been a couple of weeks ago. your counterintuitiveanalysis on things really struck a cord with me and really made sense to me. i think itwas your article on population growth really impacted me because i've always been of themind, you know, population growth, obviously a good sign for an area because the area isgrowing. and then, you just assume the population is growing, then there's more demand in thatarea. but you don't realize, "oh yeah, people

won't move into an area if there's not a housealready there." they're not going to be homeless. jeremy: that's right. ryan: so population growth doesn't necessarilyequal demand. it indicates supply. it's a good sign, but it's not a sign of demand. jeremy: yeah. there are many locations wherehigh population growth could actually be telling you the reverse thing that you want to know.you're thinking it's a safe bet, things are happening here. really, it could be just extrasupply by developers and people. ryan: yeah. and that's the thing, populationcould be growing, but then supply could be outstripping the population growth. and so,you really do need to go one level deeper

into it. i think dsr data was such a greatdiscovery for me because there's so many things there that just aren't easy to find elsewhere. things like your average vendor discount,even days on market trends and things like that because you guys map the trends. i justwanted to ask you - because some of the things i found i couldn't necessarily trust, likewith dsr data, some of the statistics seemed a bit odd. without obviously giving away yoursecrets or anything, but how do you guys collect the data and how do we know we can trust it? jeremy: yeah. okay. i've seen dubious statisticspublished in the past, too, and i've been caught out by that. the one thing that investorscan straightaway do to protect themselves

particularly with, i think the most anomalousstatistic is the yield, median yield. so, you could have a market with 1-bedroom units,3-bedroom penthouse apartments. you get a wide variety of different markets within themarket. the median no longer becomes representative of that market and the yield is the classicexample of that. you get an anomalous median rent and multiply that by an anomalous medianvalue and you get a super anomalous yield. ryan: i always thought it was a bad idea tolook at yield as one of your main criteria because the properties that go for rent aren'tnecessarily the best properties that sell. most people who buy the higher end of themarket end up living in it versus renting it. so, it's always going to be very skewed.

jeremy: yeah. yield is a tricky one. i'vegot some ideas of how to improve it in the future, but certainly, if you're looking ata median-based yield, it can be very deceptive. the protection that investors have is they'vegot to do some manual research. you get those top-yielding market reports that you see allover the place. the top 10, you might have one that's legitimate, but it's not 8% yield.it's close to 5.5%. so it's above average, but it's nothing special. that's just thenature of that sort of data. what i would try to do in every statisticis i try and get data from multiple sources. so, let's say you're trying to calculate vacancyrate. there are a number of different ways you can do it. a number of different sourcesof the data. and so, i'll calculate a number

of different versions of vacancy rate. andthen for each datum, i calculate it's statistical reliability using whatever data, whatevermetadata i know about that datum. so, metadata is data about data. a good example is median. let's say you got3 sales, the middle one is the median. that isn't a big enough sample size to be confidentthat that's the median. if you have 300 sales, then you're a lot more confident that themiddle figure is roughly representative of that entire market. so sample size is one of the things that iconsider in determining the statistical reliability. another one might be volatility. so, vacancyrate is about 0% right now. last month there

were 6% and the month before there were 4%,so they're jumping all over the place. that sort of volatility lowers statistical reliability.so, for every calculation, for every datum, i'm calculating the statistical reliability.and there are 9 different considerations that go into it. another one might be proximity to unrealisticedge cases. so, you get a quoted yield of 12%. that's very high for a market to haveand, therefore, i'm less trusting of that figure. so, the statistical reliability at1.5% yield or 10% yield and up lowers. you have these 9 different considerationsget together a statistical reliability for one vacancy rate figure. calculate anothervacancy rate figure using some other source

data and then you combine them together usingtheir respective statistical reliability. so, i guess, if you're comparing dsr data'svacancy rate versus another data provider, i'm using multiple instances, multiple versionsin the hope that that will give a more accurate figure. and then, on top of that, you've gotthe dsr, which encompasses vacancy rates, yield, auction clearance rates, days on market,a whole bunch of other statistics. so, the more angles you look at a market from, statistically,the more likely you're picking a winner if all the statistics are pointing in the samedirection. it's unlikely that every single statistic is going to be suffering from somekind of anomaly the more that you look at. so, the plan for me in the future is justget more and more data. at the moment, dsr

plus looks at 17 statistics and i've got about50 on the drawing board and not nearly enough time to put into building applets. ryan: it's good for people to see and it'sgood for me to see the rigor that you use in collecting your statistics and in evenshowing the statistical reliability, which i know you do inside there. it's good forpeople to know that if we're looking at vacancy rates on dsr data, then you've collected itfrom a variety of sources, it's not just something that you've kind of assumed yourself. i have seen some tools that have come andgo and they kind of create their own scraping tools or things like that and the data canbe haywire.

jeremy: yeah, yeah. well i've had a bit ofhaywire data myself, but now, over the years, i've learnt how to filter it out. but i'vegotten some dodgy data from one provider. i remember, i think it was the median pricefor houses in newman in western australia. it was over $3 billion, which was obviouslysomething that went haywire, as you say. but i do filtering on the data there. i know what'srealistic and i make sure that that sort of rubbish doesn't get into my database. becausei'm an investor myself, i was using the data originally just for my own investing. so,i need it to be accurate. my entire business is based on providing thedata. so, obviously, it has to work. it has to be accurate. there are plenty of otherenterprises where you just publish to get

some kind of attention or to get an emailaddress and then you market a developer's project, or something like that, but that'snot my business. ryan: well, dsr data has quickly become myfavorite tool when it comes to suburb research in particular. just because i think some ofthe most important stats are things like days on market, like vendor discounting, sometimesauction clearance rates if there's enough volume there, like vacancy, not so much yield,but what else is there? oh, you guys don't look at capital growth history, do you oryou do? jeremy: i do. ryan: it's just not displayed.

jeremy: it's part of the millionaire's statistics.there's a thing called "market cycle timing", and it looks at a history of capital growth.so, if a market has had pretty ordinary growth for the last 7 years and now it's just startingto pick up, then that would trigger a higher score in the mct, the market cycle timing. ryan: let's talk about this because that'ssomething that people ask me a lot of questions about. it's like the property clock. whereis a suburb within it's cycle? is it peaking? is it going down? is it at the bottom, aboutto go up or is it in the boom cycle? so let's talk about market cycle timing because i thinkthis is - most people, myself included, we can't lookat the data and say, "okay, i know where in

the cycle this is." because i don't know ifi don't have the mind for it or i don't have access to enough data. but that stuff justdoesn't make sense to me. so, if there's a tool out there that can help people to indicatewhereabouts in the property clock or the property cycle a suburb is, i think people are goingto be very interested in this. so can we talk a bit about market cycle timing and how canpeople use this tool? what are they looking for? how does it work? all that sort of stuff. jeremy: just on that stereotypical "clock".i'm yet to see a price chart that shows that stereotypical increase in growth then flatteningout and then taking off again. every market just seems to be so different, so unique.i can remember being asked to write an article

by your investment property magazine on thatsort of topic and i couldn't find a stereotypical example of this property clock taking place. ryan: so do you think the property clock isbogus idea? jeremy: i think it has some merit. you definitelydo see this on a macro scale. if you look at sydney, for example. in the last few yearsit's been booming and starting to peak out now. i mean there's still good growth. i'dstill be buying around sydney right now. i still think there's a lot of markets, particularlyin the outskirts of sydney that are just starting to see the ripple effect flow out there. butlooking at an individual market, like a single suburb, the prices just move around too radicallyto say that there's this clock.

ryan: this is good. i like this. i like counterintuitivethings where people teach us one thing about we look at data and we can learn how we canapproach it from a better angle. this is good. jeremy: yeah. the data is trying to do thebest it can with this [inaudible 33:50] information. with mct's, i'm looking at last month's growthand the month before and so on. back to about 3-5 years. no, it goes back to 10 years. so,let's say you've got above-average growth in a particular market for 10 years. actually,a better example, really simple example. let's say we talk about apples and oranges. thisis 100 years ago, oranges are 1 cent and apples are 2 cents. i know that there were poundsor pence or something back then. ryan: let's just go with it. we'll run withit. make it simple for people.

jeremy: yeah. we'll just go with it. let'sjust say that one of them outperforms the other. it just has superior growth. i thinkthe comparison i did was 6% and 4% and i did the numbers. over 100 years, one fruit wouldbe 7 times the value of another. so, you can picture yourself going into a fruit shop andyou could buy a bag of apples for the price of one orange. long before that ever happened,people just stopped buying oranges because they're too expensive and they would buy theonly alternative - apples. and that change in supply and demand would mean that appleswould have a boost of growth and orange will have fallen. ryan: do you remember when bananas reallyexpensive? this is years ago and you used

to go into the shop and you buy one banana.it'll be like $4. and you'll be like, "oh my goodness! why am i even buying this banana?" jeremy: savor it. get a group of friends togetherand have a banana. ryan: yeah. whereas the other day, i justwent past and i just saw bananas and they looked ripe, they looked good, i grabbed awhole bunch and bought them and i didn't even look at the price. jeremy: yeah, or mangoes. there's a shortageof mangoes at the moment now. ryan: oh, is there? oh dear. so that long term growth of an area, are yousaying that doesn't happen because it would

just become too expensive? jeremy: yeah. eventually, it just gets tooexpensive, people say, "no. i can't do it." and you compare places like, in sydney, mosmanversus campbelltown. ritzy area versus the cheap area. you can't say that the ritzy areaswill always outgrow the cheaper ones. in fact, if you want a short burst of growth, ungentrifiedareas have the most potential. in western sydney, just before the olympic games in paris,they had the rowing out at castle ray and it was a fair amount of development activitygoing on there. if you have the extension of a train line. that can't happen in a citycenter because it's already a train there. it's already got the shops. it's got everythingit could possibly have. but when you have

some infrastructure reach out into a regionalarea, then it has a big impact. so, if anything, far-flung markets have thepotential for more rapid capital growth than city centers. but city centers have the benefitof a diverse economy and so have lower risk. i think that the reason why city prices aremore expensive than the outskirts is simply because people started buying there sooner.you know, 200 years ago, that's where we wanted to live .we wanted to live close to the city.the outskirts might have been surry hills in sydney, which we now call cbd fringe. so,yeah, i don't think that there's any evidence of the data suggesting that city markets willoutperform regional markets, apart from the fact that we've been moving away from an agricultural-basedindustry to services-based over the how ever

many decades. ryan: yeah. i think the thing for people toget is often we look at data or people teach us about data and they say cities, that'swhere you get your capital growth. regional centers, you might get positive cash flowbut not as much growth. and people make these broad claims that this is always the case.i feel like what you're trying to say is sometimes that is the case, but not always. and whenwe're investing - i'm not investing in sydney. i don't have enough money to buy all of sydney.i'm investing in one suburb within sydney or one property within that suburb withinsydney and so, we can't take these broad statements that people use about large city areas versusregional areas and say that that's always

going to be the case for your property inyour suburb. am i on the right track there? jeremy: yeah, yeah. exactly. in fact, i'veinvested in both city markets and regional markets and the best capital growth, the fastestcapital growth i've ever had has always been in a regional market. but at the same time,i've made the worst mistakes in regional markets. i think that your set-and-forget type property,you can't have a set-and-forget property in a regional market. you need to keep your eyeon it. i've bought properties in regional areas thathave literally doubled in value in 3 years - in less than 3 years. they've dropped invalue as well, just as quickly. rather than sell, i've refinanced, bought elsewhere anddidn't keep my eye on those regional markets

and they've dropped since, and so i've gotnegative equity. so, from now on, i keep an eye on every market that i buy. in fact, that'swhy one of the products i've got on my website, the market monitor. you don't want to go throughthe trouble of researching the same suburb you've already bought in every month, butyou do need to keep an eye on it. so, the market monitor, the idea there is you justget one of these emails each month and it just shows you, "oh, look, vacancy rates arestarting to climb." and then you can do some detailed research and maybe lock a tenantinto a 2-year lease to get through a bad period of vacancy rates or maybe even sell. ryan: i think that's awesome because a lotof people don't do research after they bought

the property. as you said and what you did,they just sit on it, hope it goes up, "oh, maybe i'll check in 5 years, see if it's grown." to be able to monitor a market and to say,"yes. it's growing. happy days, just hold on to it." or to day, "no, the market's turning." one example would be like port headland grewfor years and years. 11% capital growth, huge capital growth. i think recently, it's justbeen plummeting. for people, if they had bought in there, if they were monitoring the market,and to see, "okay, the scales are starting to tip in the opposite direction." they couldpotentially get out before too much damage was done. so i think that's an awesome tool.

i want to go back to the capital growth trendsand the bogus property clock because we get taught that and we think, okay, markets goin these cycles. but, obviously, even just thinking about that now, it makes so muchsense that doesn't happen. markets don't just always go in that sort of cycle. they don'talways peak and then always drop and then always grow again and gentrify. every marketis different. is there something, as investors, that wecan look at in terms of capital growth trends to make sense of it? because sometimes, ilook at areas and i'm like, well it's grown consistently, but does that mean it's goingto continue to grow consistently or has it grown too much and now it's going to drop?is there a way to make sense of past capital

growth? jeremy: yeah. it is tricky. the best you'regoing to get is just a general sort of rule. there are people who go into a casino andthey'll use this strategy on the roulette wheel. so let's say you've had 5 blacks ina row, they'll bet white. because they're assuming the universe is going to balanceout again and you can't have a run of blacks forever. sooner or later, it's going to gowhite. so, what we know about a trend is that sooner or later, it's going to end. the longera trend is, the more confident we are that it's about to end. so you're really betweena rock and a hard place there. you're seeing a trend. you know that it is a trend becauseyou've seen a good amount of history proving

that. so if you go with the trend, chancesare it's going to go the other way and that whole thing about supply and demand balancingthis tug of war that it has if you have a significant amount of capital growth overan extended period of time, sooner or later, it's going to come to an end. so, the moreof it you see, the more confident you can be that it's about to end. then on the other side of the coin, if youbuy into a flat market, particularly regional markets, they can be dead for decades. sowhat you're looking for is a combination of 2 things. first of all, you're looking fora market that has been flat or negative for a long period of time and then, recently,over the last 6 to 12 months, you're seeing

completely different. it's starting to pickup. it's starting to have some growth. and that's what the mct tries to measure. it doesn'tactually give you a growth figure because it's looking at a couple of different things.so it just gives a score out of 100 for an estimate of, "is this potentially the startof the next growth cycle?" so, has there been a long period of no growth or negative growthand now is there some signs of a change? ryan: yup. i would presume you would alwaysadvise people, you're looking for this indicator but that's not the be all and end all. you'dwant to back this up with other signs, like a decrease in vendor discounting. potentiallydecrease in vacancy rates or decrease in days on market. so, you'd want to see that trend,understand that trend, but then back it up

with other data points as well. jeremy: yeah. as soon as you start lookingat one statistic in isolation, you're in trouble. like population growth, you've got to lookat -- and that's why i want to get more and more statistics. i think once we get to apoint where we got, say, 35 statistics and you find a market where 32 of them are allpointing in the same direction, you can be very confident that that's a good market toinvest in. that's a safe market. ryan: yeah. i think one of the biggest mistakespeople make is they do just look at just one statistic. so they look at affordability ormedian yield or they look at population growth. i think i saw one video and they're talkingabout what's important in capital growth and

the guy was saying, "you know what's importantin capital growth? income growth. if income grows in an area, then that's the best indicatorof capital growth." what do you think about income growth and capital growth? obviously, in our discussions, that wouldbe one aspect of it. we would never just rely on that. but do you think it's a helpful indicator? jeremy: i think it has some merit. in mostcases, the source of information is [inaudible 45:03] tribunals statistics. it comes fromcensus data. i'd remember sitting at a census with someone i was living with at the timeand not having my tax return in front of me and just picking a number that i thought wasmy income at the time. so you've got some

inaccuracy there. you've got some ego at playas well. ryan: yeah. that's what i thought. peoplecould over-inflate. with census, it's voluntary. they're not getting your tax records. they'relike, "yeah, you just voluntary say i earn about this." sometimes people understate aswell because they're not claiming all the tax. they're not claiming everything theymake. jeremy: [inaudible 45:41] that's what it is.even though it's anonymous, yeah. but you've also got the issue that right now, it's 2015.it was in august 2011. so, it can be out of date. but the other issue is if people arein that with that income, why are they going to buy in that area? they already live there.now, people do buy an investment property

often close to home, but knowing the incomeof the people that are actually living there isn't what you want to know. you want to know,what is the income of the people that are about to buy there? ryan: can you find that out though? is thata possible data point? jeremy: there is a group called "id". i subscribeto their email newsletter and they say that they can actually figure out where populationflows are taking place at a suburb level. i haven't had the time to grill them overit and find out what we can know about demographics that are in surrounding areas that might beabout to buy into our target market that we're reseaching.

ryan: yeah. i loved what you said when we'retalking about income growth in an area and you're saying if their income is growing inthe area and that area is not the pinnacle of the market or the most expensive area,then that could actually indicate that people are likely to leave that area and go elsewhere. jeremy: that's right. yeah. you could geta massive vacancy rate. it could be [inaudible 47:12] and it could be the exact oppositeindicator that you want. i think what it helps with is if there is surplus income in an area,then people are more likely to get the new kitchen, have a deck built out the back, puta pool in. so you won't see markets deteriorate. you may have a lot of renovation projectsgoing on and values of properties, from a

purely valuation perspective, improve. butunless there's a sale that takes place, none of that information trickles through to us. ryan: so do you think with income growth,when you're looking at it, are we looking at growth in income between 2006 and 2011and whether that's outperformed the australian average? or, are we looking at how much weeklyincome is a household receiving and how does that compare to the price of a property inthe area and if they've got more income, than the price of the property? is that what wewant? which one are we more looking for? jeremy: yeah. so you're saying growth of incomeversus surplus of income. ryan: yeah. or it could be both or neither.

jeremy: for a regional market, i think growthof income is a good indicator. there's something going on there. the industry is kicking. ithink, though, for the surplus income, to have any sort of impact, it's probably lessof a good indicator, even in a regional market. the reason why is, just because people havesurplus income, it doesn't mean that they're going to go out and buy property, spendingmore than what it's worth. the theoretical idea of that is, if you have a huge amountof surplus income, someone will pay $1 million for a $500,000 property simply because theycan afford it. they don't. they're still going to pay market value. if the market isn't moving,then it doesn't matter how much surplus income they've got. they're not pushing prices up.

ryan: so, really, for surplus income to havean impact, people would have to do renovations and improve the quality of the propertiesin the area. that would be really the only way to impact it. i think you said it againin an article, you were like, we're assuming that as people's income grows, their stupiditygrows as well. jeremy: yeah. that's right. yeah, exactly. ryan: really, it's coming back to demand andsupply, isn't it? because people who have surplus of income, if they increase the qualityof the property, then there's more value there. otherwise, it's still demand and supply atwork. because they're going to look at the market, see what it's worth and buy a housefor what it's worth. they're not just going

to pay $100,000 more because they earn extramoney. jeremy: yeah. that's right, yeah. it reallydoes come back to supply and demand. that's all there is. it's not just property. anycommodity or service, in a free market, it really just does come down to supply and demand.i've seen developer projects marketed and they'll say, "oh, we break our research into5 groups. there's supply and demand and then there's infrastructure then there's this blah,blah, blah..." and all these other things. but really, infrastructure affects demand.something else affects supply. population growth affects demand. it all comes down tosupply and demand at the end. so, if you can accurately score demand and score supply andcalculate the balance between them, then it's

got to be a winning formula and that's whythe dsr works. ryan: yeah. something that i've tried to askyou in email, but i'm not sure if it came through clearly, was talking about the peakof the market. i get so many emails from people that are like, "i'm not going to invest becausei think the market's peaked. so i'm not going to invest until it drops." and i'm like, "well,do you actually know that?" how can you know that? i guess i wanted to understand, withdsr, demand and supply, what is the lag time with dsr data and could we use it to identifythat a market has peaked and is potentially turning? jeremy: i get a few people that are, particularlyright now, worried about investing in sydney

because of that. they're thinking the markethas peaked. there's possibly even some talk of interest rate rise. i can understand theinsecurity. there has been a little dwindling, i suppose, in the rate of growth of the sydneymarket. but really, all that's happening now is the growth is moving elsewhere - to theoutskirts of sydney. i've noticed very high demand and supply ratios in places like thefoothills of the blue mountains. basically, north, south - ryan: is this like the ripple effect comingout of sydney? people are overpriced in sydney so they're going out. jeremy: yeah. so there's still opportunities.but trying to gauge the peak of the sydney

market and bare in mind we're not really interestedin the sydney market. we're just interested in - ryan: well, even just a suburb. the peak ofa suburb, i guess. jeremy: yeah. so the peak of a suburb. whenwe're talking about a peak, are we talking about the price growth? you want to know whenif you've bought, is it now time to sell? prices aren't going to go much higher. orare you thinking it's the peak of the dsr? ryan: no, no. i'm talking someone's buying- peak of prices. so after the peak, prices will either stagnate or they would drop. sothat's kind of what we're looking at. so sydney's obviously gone on rocket ship growth overthe last couple of years. is there a way a

suburb in sydney, say, cronulla, for example,or any suburb. is there a way to watch the dsr and to see the dsr changing and indicatingthat supply is lowering and, therefore, prices may stagnate? jeremy: yeah. the dsr is the ideal stat forfiguring out what's about to happen. so if prices are about to stagnate, price growthis about to stagnate. the dsr wouldn't be out of balance. that's a market that's comeback to balance. so either supply has caught up with a heavy abounded developer activityor prices have gone up and demand has just vanished. we come back to a dsr that's aroundthe 50 out of 100 mark. that's where you're going to see prices either grow in line withinflation or the long term sort of average.

ryan: how long does it take for dsr to update?is it weekly? is it monthly? is it 3-monthly? jereamy: it's once a month. all the data isaccumulated for a month. so auction clearance rates, its what auctions are we counting?they're from the first of the month to the last of the month. in fact, it's actuallythe last 5 weeks for auction clearance rate just to round it out so i don't have to dealwith februarys versus novembers or whatever. it's updated monthly. it could be done weekly,but i just don't think the property market is that volatile that you're going to seea change there. when you start dealing with small sample sizes, the amount trading volumethat takes place in a week, it's too small. you get some volatility in the figures asthey jump around. you know, you have a $500,000

property sell last month and a $300,000 propertysell this month. doing it week to week it's got to be even more volatile - ryan: yeah. there's just not enough volume.you're not selling the same house over and over again every week. you might sell onehouse that's really nice one week. one house that's not as nice the next week. just becauseyou bought a house of $500,000 and next week your house sells for $300,000 doesn't meanyour house isn't still worth $500,000. jeremy: yeah, yeah. it's bad enough lookingat it month to month. ryan: have you ever seen a market drop likethat? like drop in a month or something like that? like your people are watching dsr andmonitoring a suburb. are they going to get

the wool put over their eyes or somethinglike that? is it going to happen so quickly that people will miss it? jeremy: no. in fact, the dsr is very stable.you usually see it move by a couple of points each month. out of 100, it's a few percentagepoints. it doesn't move much at all for the vast majority markets. however, there aresome markets where there's limited information available. and they could be a little morevolatile. you might see it jump by 10 or drop by 10. so, what i do is i always look at ahistorical chart. so, let's say we're looking at the dsr and it seems quite high. actually,dsr is probably not a good example. vacancy rates. you have a thinly traded market. vacancyrates can jump from 0% to 10% from month to

month if there's only 20 rental propertiesin that suburb. so, if one comes off from the market, then straight away, that's 5%vacancy rate. so, what i do is i look at a historical chart. and the charts i've goton my website dsrdata.com.au, they show the last 3 years for any statistic. so you justput your eyes across that and you can easily see. there's a line of best fit there thatsay 2% vacancy rate. 0% seems unrealistic. 8% seems unrealistic. it's around about the2%, which seems more normal. so, i always want to look at a historical chart if i seeany volatility. ryan: i love the charts on dsr data becauseyou can instantly get that view of a trend in an area or you can instantly see - obviously,if you see a vacancy rate that's high, like

5% or 6% or more, instantly, you're like,"okay, that's a bad sign." but then you can look at the data trends and say, "okay, wellthis is just volatility at work. it's not actually an indicator or the area." and thenyou see other areas that maybe it's a little bit high, like 3% or something but it's beengoing down for a couple of years and you're like, "okay, that's a good sign because vacancyrate's decreasing over time." the trend graph that you have inside dsr data is one of themost valuable aspects of the tool for me and for the people that i teach about how to doresearch because we're not just looking at the data as it stands today. we're also lookingat the trends in that data and how it's changing over time.

jeremy: yeah. the only recourse you've gotto protect yourself against a volatile figure looking at the end of month is to, "well,what was it the month before or the month before that?" and it's looking at a historicalchart. we can't really do much else about it. we got a report, this is the median forthis month, but you want to look at what it was the last month, the month before to weedit like that. ryan: i think, for people doing their researchout there, there are, as we've talked about, lots of different things you can look at.you can look at population. you can look at income. you can look at vacancies. you canlook at of these different things, but, obviously, we want to try and look at as many as we can.and i think the tool that you've created - i

think the dsr figure that you've created aswell is the best aggregate that we're ever going to get at this point in time of an indicatorof a market. when people say, "just look at income", yeah,no. look at other things as well. i would say, if you're going to do one figure, ideallyyou'd just be looking at one figure to whittle it down to suburbs that you'll do more in-depthresearch in, but i definitely think dsr or demand to supply ratio is the definitely thefigure. if i was to whittle down suburbs, that's probably what i would look at. dsrto minimize, just cut the crap. get rid of the ones that are bad and then you've gotones that are good. question that i have for you more from aninvestor standpoint than the runner of dsr

data is - my assumption is that we're goingto use dsr to whittle down our suburbs. the suburbs that we're left with will probablyhave the highest dsr, which means there's the most demand in that area. do you haveany tips or strategies for people? because, obviously, purchasing in those areas, areyou unlikely to get a property for discount, you're going to be competing against a lotof other people. if this is your strategy, what have you done to kind of mitigate thatand ensure that you're investing and not overpaying because you're getting caught up in the hype? jeremy: yeah. this is actually a tough one.i get a lot of people complaining about that. ryan: jeremy, you're showing me too many goodsuburbs! what are you doing?

jeremy: they complain that there's simplyaren't any properties available. first of all, how do you estimate a bargain price topay when you've been searching in this one suburb for the last 3 months and only 4 propertieshave been up for sale? it's very difficulty to buy into the truly high demand-supply ratiosuburbs and it can be very frustrating. what i do is i try and get a group of suburbs together.so there may be 2 or 3 half a dozen suburbs. that means i'd be doing open inspections,looking in all of those suburbs, in any property that's for sale. and i'd make loads of offers,so that if one sticks, then i take what i can get. ryan: okay. i like this because i think oneof the best things people ask me, okay, what's

a great way to negotiate? and one of the bestways to negotiate is to not be committed to that one property, but to have other optionsthat you can move to if the price isn't right. because people negotiate, they get stuck inthe one property, they end up going too high. so, i think, spreading your research or spreadingyour property purchase across multiple suburbs potentially, obviously opens the door to amuch wider variety of properties. so even if there's a couple on the market at one time,if you're looking at 6 suburbs, rather than having 2 properties that you're fighting over,you've got 12 to look at, for example. jeremy: yeah. that's right. it does mean you'vegot to do a lot more research, unfortunately. i tell people that if they're going to buyin a high demand-supply ratio market, the

idea of getting a bargain, just get that outof your head. you're not going to buy one. you cannot negotiate vendors down when they'vegot loads of buyers knocking on their door saying, "look, i'll give you whatever youwant for this." but that's better than buying in a market where you have hundreds of propertiesto choose from. i remember the first time i generated dsraustralia-wide. i wanted to check so i contacted real estate agents in some of the top markets.they treated me like dirt, "yes, jeremy, we'll contact you once something else comes on themarket." and then, i contact, i think it was airlie beach, airlie beach at that time. thisis back in 2010 - units in particular. they had a very low demand-supply ratio. they treatedme like royalty, "oh, jeremy, there's so much

to choose from. come fly up here. we'll giveyou the royal treatment." i knew that's a soft market and i could get a bargain there,but what's going to happen to prices? so, i would much rather pay full market price,give the vendor what their asking and so that i've got a foot in the door of a great market.rather than get a bargain and then just see that wiped out by a third of price falls overthe next 12 months or whatever. ryan: yeah. or see it just sit there for thenext 5 years and do nothing because there is no demand in the area. i think that's goodfor people to get out of their mind. because a lot of people do teach the best way to investis to buy below market value so you can get instant equity in an area. look, i'm surethere are ways to do that. but it just sounds

so much easier to identify good markets, marketsthat are solid, that are likely to grow, get in there at market value and see the marketrise. and if you really want to create equity, then you can do things like renovation orcreate opportunities within that property yourself. jeremy: yeah. that whole instant equity thing.if your strategy is entirely based on buying below market value, then why would you hangon to a property once you've bought it? your strategy has now come to its fruition, you'vebought below market value. so why isn't there a discount flip? you know there's a renovationflip. so, you buy, renovate and sell. there's no such thing as a discount flip. becauseas soon as you've settled on that property,

that's its new value - whatever you paid forit. and that's what other buyers are looking at, "oh, this is now the new benchmark." so,if you can, and if every buyer in that area can get a bargain, prices are heading down,they're not heading up. i remember seeing one property educator complainingabout sydney prices. this is last year. they're saying people are paying too much. too muchbeing above valuation. unless people buy above valuation, capital growth doesn't take place.it has to be someone forking out a little bit more money. and then you've got a newbenchmark, which becomes the standard and people continue to buy above market value.that's the only way capital growth happens. so if you're buying in a location where everyone'spaying fair market value, you're buying in

a stagnant location. you've got to pay moreto get into these hot markets. that's the unfortunate side effect of getting into themarket. ryan: i guess the only other way that i'mthinking that people could potentially do that is to look for the ripple effect andto buy just outside the hot area at the moment where you can potentially negotiate more andthen your capital growth might not happen in 12 months or 2 years, but maybe in 2 yearsthen it'll start to pickup because of the ripple effect from other suburbs. jeremy: yeah. yeah. actually, that's a goodpoint. one of the shortcomings of the dsr is this long forecast. it really can't possiblypredict capital growth in a market where the

ripple effect, for example, hasn't taken effector where an infrastructure project has just been announced, but it's not impacting themarket. the dsr is something that you would use perhaps in those circumstances to timeyour entry in the market. if you know there's an infrastructure project taking place. youbelieve this is a great location to invest in, there's no reason why you have to putyour money there, have it sit there for 2 years with nothing happening. you can monitorthe dsr to see when it's starting to pickup. but one of the shortcomings of the dsr isthat long-sightedness. ryan: i think one of the shortcomings of anythingto invest in property is the short-sightedness of that. you can't get access to data thatsays, "yeah. this area is going to grow rapidly

for the next 10 years." it just doesn't exist. jeremy: yeah. it doesn't exist. that's right. ryan: you can listen to someone telling youthat, but they're probably trying to sell you a property that's overpriced in a marketthat doesn't have any demand. so, yeah, dsr does have that limitation, but so does everything.i think dsr, people shouldn't see it as the be all and end all. it is an amazing tool.it has some of the best information out there. the best way to track an area. but, obviously,there's going to be speculative stuff that you need to look at as well. things that youjust can't get access to. like, job growth in the area is not really easy to find. gentrificationof the area, as you drive through it, you

can see some of that stuff, but you can'tnecessarily prove it through data. infrastructure projects don't just appear in data. you'vegot to take some speculation. jeremy: the first place i go to after findinga location with a high dsr is the council website, just to check what development applicationshave been lodged. so, you may have a market that's got great demand-to-supply ratio rightnow, but there's all these pending development applications and there could be a massiveoversupply about to hit the market. it takes time to build things, obviously,so you could some 12 months of capital growth. but i check the council website for that localgovernment area. that's the next place i go. ryan: let's leave it at that to honor yourtime. this has been absolutely awesome. you

have an approach that no one else i've seenhas about analysing areas to look for potential growth in an area. i see so much people usingthe broad spectrum approach. sydney's growing, so you should invest in sydney. we can't investin sydney, we're buying one house in a suburb. as well, your insight into population growthand your insight into all of these things. look, i really appreciate your time. i appreciatethe tool that you've created, which is going to help all of my listeners, all of my followersbecause i think, really, it is the best tool out there for free or paid. i have accessto paid tools as well and i still don't think they're as good. jeremy: that's great. i'm glad you find ituseful. i honestly don't get much feedback.

i think people just use it, buy some stuffand then i never hear from them. so, yeah, it's great to get some feedback ryan: yeah. i've shared it with a few peopleand i think a few of our minds have been blown just by the fact that it's all in one placeand that you can get access to it all. and then, obviously, if you're super serious aboutinvesting then, the upgrade to the millionaire package is totally worth it because you justget access to more stuff. look, thanks for going out there and for creatingthis. for making it available for free and for your time and for your insight. i lookforward to following you more and hearing more about your insights into the australianproperty market.

jeremy: that's cool. great talking to you,ryan. thank you. ryan: well, that completes the interview onhow to analyse a property market with jeremy sheppard from dsrdata.com.au. i really enjoyeddoing this interview. i asked jeremy a lot of questions that i wanted to know the answerto. and so, i hope that you found it useful as well and learned a bit about how to analysea property market. if you are doing any research into a suburb,then i do suggest you go ahead and check out jeremy's website, dsrdata.com.au. you cango over there, punch in a suburb and it will show you the demand-to-supply ratio of thatsuburb straight away. or you can sign up and you can get way more details. things likevacancy rates, days on market, auction clearance

rates, all the good sort of stuff over there.so, go ahead, check out dsrdata.com.au. and thank you, jeremy, for doing this interview. if you want more help on how to look at thisdata, how to understand the data, then go ahead and check out my course on how to dosuburb research. you can check that out, go to onproperty.com.au/research. and there,i will show you through my video tutorials exactly how to research a suburb, what datapoints to look at, what each of the data points mean and how you can put all of those togetherto really understand whether the suburb is likely to grow or if it's likely to stay stagnantor decline. so, again, that's onproperty.com.au/research.and until next time, guys, stay positive.